GCT Moves

GigaCloud Technology Inc Class A GCT 58.37 -4.64 -7.36%

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Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $58.44

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±3.3% ±$1.89	$56.54 – $60.33	$56.15 – $60.72	$54.36 – $62.51
2 sessions	±4.5% ±$2.64	$55.79 – $61.08	$55.23 – $61.64	$52.73 – $64.14
3 sessions	±5.7% ±$3.34	$55.10 – $61.77	$54.46 – $62.41	$51.34 – $65.53
1 week	±7.3% ±$4.23	$54.20 – $62.67	$53.26 – $63.61	$49.41 – $67.46
2 weeks	±10.2% ±$5.94	$52.49 – $64.38	$51.08 – $65.79	$45.76 – $71.11
3 weeks	±11.9% ±$6.94	$51.49 – $65.38	$49.80 – $67.07	$43.76 – $73.11
1 month	±13.7% ±$7.97	$50.46 – $66.41	$48.48 – $68.39	$41.52 – $75.35

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±15.62%

Average actual move

17.65%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 2

Median IV change

-41.50%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
May 07, 2026	±16.11%	-4.78%	0.30×	128.3% → 75.1%
August 08, 2025	±15.12%	+30.52%	2.02×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →