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The Gap GAP 22.41 -1.34 -5.64%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $22.33
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.9% ±$0.41 $21.92 – $22.74 $21.83 – $22.83 $21.44 – $23.22
2 sessions ±2.6% ±$0.58 $21.75 – $22.91 $21.63 – $23.03 $21.09 – $23.57
3 sessions ±3.3% ±$0.73 $21.60 – $23.06 $21.47 – $23.19 $20.79 – $23.87
1 week ±4.1% ±$0.92 $21.41 – $23.25 $21.20 – $23.46 $20.37 – $24.29
2 weeks ±5.8% ±$1.29 $21.04 – $23.62 $20.73 – $23.93 $19.57 – $25.09
3 weeks Earnings ±14.0% ±$3.12 $19.21 – $25.45 $18.46 – $26.20 $15.76 – $28.90
1 month Earnings ±14.7% ±$3.28 $19.05 – $25.61 $18.26 – $26.40 $15.43 – $29.23
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. GAP reports in 11 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±12.30%
Average actual move
13.73%
Beyond the implied move
4 / 7
Median IV change
-52.01%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 28, 2026 ±13.59% +12.94% 0.95× —
May 29, 2026 ±10.68% -15.40% 1.44× —
March 06, 2026 ±12.19% -14.41% 1.18× —
August 29, 2025 ±11.02% +1.52% 0.14× 75.7% → 36.3%
May 30, 2025 ±11.47% -20.18% 1.76× —
March 07, 2025 ±12.19% +18.84% 1.55× —
November 22, 2024 ±14.97% +12.84% 0.86× —
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →