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Shift4 Payments FOUR 42.79 -2.03 -4.53%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $42.79
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±2.6% ±$1.13 $41.66 – $43.92 $41.44 – $44.14 $40.38 – $45.20
2 sessions ±3.7% ±$1.57 $41.22 – $44.36 $40.89 – $44.69 $39.41 – $46.17
3 sessions ±4.6% ±$1.97 $40.82 – $44.76 $40.44 – $45.14 $38.60 – $46.98
1 week ±5.8% ±$2.50 $40.29 – $45.29 $39.73 – $45.85 $37.45 – $48.13
2 weeks ±8.2% ±$3.51 $39.28 – $46.30 $38.44 – $47.14 $35.29 – $50.29
3 weeks ±10.2% ±$4.35 $38.44 – $47.14 $37.38 – $48.20 $33.59 – $51.99
1 month ±12.1% ±$5.18 $37.61 – $47.97 $36.32 – $49.26 $31.80 – $53.78
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±12.76%
Average actual move
14.05%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 3
Median IV change
-32.57%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
May 07, 2026 ±14.58% +9.26% 0.64× 108.2% → 72.5%
August 05, 2025 ±13.11% -15.43% 1.18× —
February 19, 2025 ±10.58% -17.48% 1.65× 59.3% → 51.0%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →