DFTX Moves

Definium Therapeutics DFTX 30.36 -2.34 -7.16%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $30.48

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±4.6% ±$1.39	$29.08 – $31.87	$28.80 – $32.15	$27.49 – $33.46
2 sessions	±6.3% ±$1.93	$28.54 – $32.41	$28.13 – $32.82	$26.30 – $34.65
3 sessions	±8.0% ±$2.43	$28.04 – $32.91	$27.56 – $33.39	$25.28 – $35.67
1 week	±10.2% ±$3.09	$27.38 – $33.57	$26.68 – $34.27	$23.87 – $37.08
2 weeks	±14.3% ±$4.34	$26.13 – $34.82	$25.10 – $35.85	$21.20 – $39.75

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. DFTX reports in 3 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±11.75%

Average actual move

4.96%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 1

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
May 08, 2026	±11.75%	-4.96%	0.42×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →