DECK Moves

Deckers Outdoor Corp DECK 89.11 5.02 5.97%

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Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $89.28

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.8% ±$1.59	$87.69 – $90.87	$87.37 – $91.19	$85.86 – $92.70
2 sessions	±2.5% ±$2.22	$87.07 – $91.50	$86.60 – $91.97	$84.51 – $94.06
3 sessions	±3.1% ±$2.82	$86.47 – $92.10	$85.93 – $92.64	$83.28 – $95.28
1 week	±4.0% ±$3.61	$85.68 – $92.89	$84.87 – $93.69	$81.60 – $96.97
2 weeks	±5.6% ±$5.00	$84.29 – $94.28	$83.11 – $95.46	$78.63 – $99.94
3 weeks	±6.8% ±$6.08	$83.21 – $95.36	$81.73 – $96.84	$76.45 – $102.11
1 month	±7.9% ±$7.07	$82.22 – $96.35	$80.46 – $98.11	$74.30 – $104.27

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±11.09%

Average actual move

13.34%

Beyond the implied move

3 / 6

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
October 23, 2026	±9.91%	-4.91%	0.50×	—
May 22, 2026	±11.69%	+3.95%	0.34×	—
January 30, 2026	±11.16%	+19.46%	1.74×	—
July 25, 2025	±11.77%	+11.35%	0.96×	—
May 23, 2025	±13.24%	-19.86%	1.50×	—
January 31, 2025	±8.74%	-20.51%	2.35×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →