CNQ Moves

Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ 48.92 -0.72 -1.45%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $49.18

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.7% ±$0.84	$48.35 – $50.02	$48.18 – $50.19	$47.39 – $50.98
2 sessions	±2.4% ±$1.17	$48.02 – $50.35	$47.77 – $50.59	$46.67 – $51.69
3 sessions	±3.0% ±$1.47	$47.72 – $50.65	$47.43 – $50.93	$46.06 – $52.31
1 week	±3.8% ±$1.87	$47.32 – $51.05	$46.91 – $51.46	$45.21 – $53.15
2 weeks	±5.1% ±$2.50	$46.68 – $51.68	$46.09 – $52.27	$43.85 – $54.51
3 weeks	±6.8% ±$3.33	$45.85 – $52.51	$45.04 – $53.32	$42.14 – $56.22
1 month	±7.8% ±$3.85	$45.34 – $53.03	$44.38 – $53.98	$41.03 – $57.34

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±3.51%

Average actual move

2.40%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 7

Median IV change

-16.56%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
November 05, 2026	±3.48%	-1.45%	0.42×	—
August 06, 2026	±3.24%	+1.56%	0.48×	—
May 07, 2026	±3.29%	-1.95%	0.59×	36.7% → 30.9%
March 05, 2026	±4.53%	+2.58%	0.57×	—
August 07, 2025	±3.03%	-2.90%	0.96×	30.8% → 25.4%
May 08, 2025	±3.56%	+4.41%	1.24×	—
March 06, 2025	±3.46%	+1.93%	0.56×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →