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Commercial Metals Company CMC 66.38 0.52 0.79%

Previous-day view · Tue Nov 3 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 03, 2026 close · $66.38
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.7% ±$1.15 $65.23 – $67.53 $65.00 – $67.76 $63.91 – $68.85
2 sessions ±2.4% ±$1.60 $64.78 – $67.98 $64.44 – $68.32 $62.93 – $69.83
3 sessions ±3.0% ±$2.01 $64.37 – $68.39 $63.98 – $68.78 $62.09 – $70.67
1 week ±3.9% ±$2.56 $63.82 – $68.94 $63.25 – $69.51 $60.93 – $71.83
2 weeks ±5.4% ±$3.59 $62.79 – $69.97 $61.94 – $70.82 $58.72 – $74.04
3 weeks ±6.6% ±$4.39 $61.99 – $70.77 $60.92 – $71.84 $57.11 – $75.65
1 month ±7.7% ±$5.09 $61.29 – $71.47 $60.03 – $72.73 $55.59 – $77.17
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±5.89%
Average actual move
1.43%
Beyond the implied move
0 / 3
Median IV change
-16.04%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
October 15, 2026 ±5.21% +0.12% 0.02× —
March 20, 2025 ±5.66% +1.07% 0.19× 42.8% → 37.0%
January 06, 2025 ±6.80% +3.11% 0.46× 42.0% → 30.5%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →