CF Moves

CF Industries Holding CF 118.57 6.89 6.17%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $118.54

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.3% ±$2.67	$115.87 – $121.21	$115.34 – $121.74	$112.81 – $124.27
2 sessions	±3.1% ±$3.71	$114.83 – $122.25	$114.05 – $123.03	$110.54 – $126.54
3 sessions	±3.9% ±$4.67	$113.87 – $123.21	$112.97 – $124.11	$108.59 – $128.49
1 week	±5.0% ±$5.94	$112.60 – $124.48	$111.29 – $125.79	$105.89 – $131.19
2 weeks	±6.5% ±$7.73	$110.81 – $126.27	$108.99 – $128.09	$102.06 – $135.02
3 weeks	±7.9% ±$9.40	$109.14 – $127.94	$106.85 – $130.23	$98.66 – $138.42
1 month	±9.2% ±$10.94	$107.60 – $129.48	$104.88 – $132.20	$95.35 – $141.73

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±5.10%

Average actual move

3.32%

Beyond the implied move

2 / 6

Median IV change

-20.00%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
November 05, 2026	±5.51%	+6.17%	1.12×	—
August 06, 2026	±5.44%	+0.02%	0.00×	48.8% → 41.2%
May 07, 2026	±5.97%	-0.90%	0.15×	61.8% → 52.7%
August 07, 2025	±4.76%	-7.80%	1.64×	—
May 08, 2025	±4.09%	+0.78%	0.19×	40.2% → 29.6%
February 20, 2025	±4.83%	-4.24%	0.88×	42.9% → 32.4%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →