BTI Moves

British American Tobacco p BTI 63.08 0.11 0.17%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $63.08

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.3% ±$0.81	$62.27 – $63.89	$62.11 – $64.05	$61.35 – $64.81
2 sessions	±1.8% ±$1.12	$61.96 – $64.20	$61.72 – $64.44	$60.66 – $65.50
3 sessions	±2.2% ±$1.41	$61.67 – $64.49	$61.39 – $64.77	$60.06 – $66.10
1 week	±2.9% ±$1.80	$61.28 – $64.88	$60.88 – $65.28	$59.24 – $66.92
2 weeks	±4.0% ±$2.52	$60.56 – $65.60	$59.96 – $66.20	$57.69 – $68.47
3 weeks	±4.8% ±$3.01	$60.07 – $66.09	$59.34 – $66.82	$56.73 – $69.43
1 month	±5.5% ±$3.46	$59.62 – $66.54	$58.76 – $67.40	$55.74 – $70.42

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±4.84%

Average actual move

3.89%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 2

Median IV change

-3.56%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
February 12, 2026	±5.18%	+0.46%	0.09×	—
February 13, 2025	±4.50%	-7.32%	1.63×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →