BP Moves

BP p BP 44.7 -0.91 -2.0%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $44.68

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.6% ±$0.73	$43.95 – $45.41	$43.81 – $45.55	$43.12 – $46.24
2 sessions	±2.3% ±$1.01	$43.67 – $45.69	$43.46 – $45.90	$42.50 – $46.86
3 sessions	±2.9% ±$1.27	$43.41 – $45.95	$43.16 – $46.20	$41.97 – $47.39
1 week	±3.6% ±$1.62	$43.06 – $46.30	$42.70 – $46.66	$41.24 – $48.12
2 weeks	±5.0% ±$2.24	$42.44 – $46.92	$41.91 – $47.45	$39.91 – $49.45
3 weeks	±5.8% ±$2.58	$42.10 – $47.26	$41.47 – $47.89	$39.22 – $50.14
1 month	±7.1% ±$3.16	$41.52 – $47.84	$40.73 – $48.63	$37.98 – $51.38

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±4.06%

Average actual move

2.60%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 7

Median IV change

-19.70%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
October 30, 2026	±2.93%	+0.08%	0.03×	—
August 04, 2026	±4.23%	-4.11%	0.97×	—
April 28, 2026	±3.93%	+0.83%	0.21×	39.0% → 34.3%
February 10, 2026	±4.41%	-5.74%	1.30×	—
August 05, 2025	±3.82%	+3.42%	0.90×	38.7% → 31.7%
April 29, 2025	±4.53%	-3.64%	0.80×	42.2% → 33.2%
February 11, 2025	±4.55%	+0.38%	0.08×	40.2% → 28.2%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →