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Birkenstock Holding plc BIRK 37.27 -1.45 -3.74%

Previous-day view · Tue Nov 10 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 10, 2026 close · $37.27
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±2.5% ±$0.95 $36.32 – $38.22 $36.13 – $38.41 $35.23 – $39.31
2 sessions ±3.5% ±$1.32 $35.95 – $38.59 $35.67 – $38.87 $34.42 – $40.12
3 sessions ±4.5% ±$1.67 $35.60 – $38.94 $35.28 – $39.26 $33.73 – $40.81
1 week ±5.7% ±$2.12 $35.15 – $39.39 $34.68 – $39.86 $32.76 – $41.78
2 weeks ±8.0% ±$2.97 $34.30 – $40.24 $33.60 – $40.94 $30.94 – $43.60
3 weeks ±9.9% ±$3.67 $33.60 – $40.94 $32.70 – $41.84 $29.50 – $45.04
1 month ±11.8% ±$4.38 $32.89 – $41.65 $31.80 – $42.74 $27.99 – $46.55
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. BIRK reports in 26 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±9.12%
Average actual move
4.50%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 6
Median IV change
-34.54%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
May 13, 2026 ±8.10% -12.86% 1.59× —
February 12, 2026 ±9.06% -1.45% 0.16× —
August 14, 2025 ±9.01% -3.62% 0.40× —
May 15, 2025 ±8.35% +5.89% 0.71× —
February 20, 2025 ±10.10% -1.23% 0.12× 56.5% → 35.0%
December 18, 2024 ±10.12% +1.96% 0.19× 57.1% → 39.4%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →