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Franklin Templeton BEN 32.36 0.39 1.22%

Previous-day view · Tue Nov 3 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 03, 2026 close · $32.41
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.4% ±$0.45 $31.95 – $32.86 $31.86 – $32.96 $31.43 – $33.39
2 sessions ±2.0% ±$0.64 $31.77 – $33.05 $31.64 – $33.18 $31.03 – $33.78
3 sessions Earnings ±3.9% ±$1.26 $31.15 – $33.67 $30.85 – $33.96 $29.70 – $35.11
1 week Earnings ±4.5% ±$1.45 $30.95 – $33.86 $30.60 – $34.21 $29.35 – $35.46
2 weeks Earnings ±5.6% ±$1.82 $30.59 – $34.23 $30.16 – $34.66 $28.57 – $36.24
3 weeks Earnings ±6.5% ±$2.11 $30.29 – $34.52 $29.79 – $35.02 $27.97 – $36.85
1 month Earnings ±7.4% ±$2.40 $30.00 – $34.81 $29.42 – $35.39 $27.34 – $37.47
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. BEN reports in 3 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±8.88%
Average actual move
3.26%
Beyond the implied move
0 / 1
Median IV change
-17.05%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
November 04, 2024 ±8.88% -3.26% 0.37× 53.3% → 47.9%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →