Applovin Corporation Class A Common APP 271.75 26.24 10.69% Regime: Trend Up (95%)
Expected move
November 04, 2026 close · $274.06| Horizon | Expected move | Typical range | 2 in 3 closes | 9 in 10 closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session Earnings | ±12.7% ±$34.78 | $239.28 – $308.84 | $230.48 – $317.64 | $198.28 – $349.84 |
| 2 sessions Earnings | ±13.6% ±$37.16 | $236.90 – $311.22 | $227.77 – $320.35 | $193.49 – $354.63 |
| 3 sessions Earnings | ±14.4% ±$39.36 | $234.70 – $313.42 | $225.63 – $322.49 | $189.65 – $358.47 |
| 1 week Earnings | ±15.1% ±$41.25 | $232.81 – $315.31 | $222.84 – $325.28 | $187.35 – $360.77 |
| 2 weeks Earnings | ±16.3% ±$44.67 | $229.39 – $318.73 | $218.89 – $329.23 | $179.89 – $368.23 |
| 3 weeks Earnings | ±17.4% ±$47.60 | $226.46 – $321.66 | $215.14 – $332.98 | $174.03 – $374.09 |
| 1 month Earnings | ±18.5% ±$50.81 | $223.25 – $324.87 | $211.03 – $337.09 | $167.23 – $380.89 |
Earnings: priced against what happened
Average implied move
±14.60%
Average actual move
14.79%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 5
Median IV change
-39.38%
| Reaction session | Implied | Actual | Used | ATM IV before → after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 06, 2026 | ±11.60% | -19.66% | 1.70× | — |
| May 07, 2026 | ±11.88% | +6.41% | 0.54× | 93.6% → 71.7% |
| August 07, 2025 | ±14.47% | +11.97% | 0.83× | 102.1% → 58.1% |
| May 08, 2025 | ±17.75% | +11.88% | 0.67× | 130.5% → 76.4% |
| February 13, 2025 | ±17.29% | +24.02% | 1.39× | 118.3% → 74.2% |