ALAB Moves

Astera Labs ALAB 179.47 -43.8 -19.62%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $179.98

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±7.3% ±$13.23	$166.75 – $193.21	$164.11 – $195.85	$151.62 – $208.34
2 sessions	±8.6% ±$15.55	$164.43 – $195.53	$161.14 – $198.82	$146.45 – $213.51
3 sessions	±10.1% ±$18.23	$161.75 – $198.21	$158.22 – $201.74	$141.14 – $218.82
1 week	±12.1% ±$21.71	$158.27 – $201.69	$153.43 – $206.53	$133.73 – $226.23
2 weeks	±17.1% ±$30.83	$149.15 – $210.81	$141.84 – $218.12	$114.20 – $245.76
3 weeks	±20.3% ±$36.55	$143.43 – $216.53	$134.52 – $225.44	$102.71 – $257.25
1 month	±22.7% ±$40.84	$139.14 – $220.82	$128.99 – $230.97	$93.39 – $266.57

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±14.88%

Average actual move

9.52%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 6

Median IV change

-26.61%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
November 04, 2026	±13.42%	-4.43%	0.33×	—
August 05, 2026	±15.35%	-11.96%	0.78×	—
May 06, 2026	±13.64%	-0.83%	0.06×	—
August 06, 2025	±14.31%	+28.66%	2.00×	104.7% → 82.2%
May 07, 2025	±13.31%	-0.38%	0.03×	96.0% → 70.4%
February 11, 2025	±19.22%	-10.89%	0.57×	148.9% → 81.3%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →